I’m not going to say that I feel ripped off, but well, yes, scratch that I do. What am I talking about? Well I’m not going to pretend that I’m the first to notice a basketball or athletic lineage going on at the moment (which will only increase with time, mark my words), but at the very least I beat the Wall Street Journal in pointing it out in detail by several months.
Like with most studies and analysis, while they can usually back something up with statistics or paint a verifiable picture…they are often late to the game (pun intended) to what observation does in shorter time. If early man said “hmm…it looks like most geese always seem fly south come winter time,” it probably became quite apparent before it was studied and factually proven. That said, greater acknowledgement of said observations is still a good thing as it provides credence (and potentially a bit of self fulfilling prophecy) as everyone starts to look for the next Kobe Bryant or Steph Curry.
That however, is an area I think Wall Street and other sources, NBA teams included, have still thus far missed: in not judging a book by its cover, or an article by its title, one may overlook the point upon which something is written. The very premise of my original article was right there in plain sight. It said Bet On NBA Sons. Bet. What does it mean to bet? It means to invest in or put weight behind. Take a chance on. Wager. It doesn’t mean you have a sure thing, but it does mean you’ve hopefully been given a hunch. And in a world of million dollar betting by way of the draft, where most players feel like a ‘miss’ rather than a ‘hit,’ or turn out to be average despite high expectations, it seems as a good a wager as any.
The question now is, who did? To know that, one first needs to realize that some were available and then, where did they end up. As I stated earlier, don’t be surprised if there is an influx of them over the next 20+ years, to do so is to be naive. Also don’t rely too heavily on just numbers, nor just observation, lest you become the Wall Street Journal, often following its namesake rather than leading it, but I digress. Does the name Sabonis, ring a bell? For years, despite coming to the NBA late in his international career Arvydis Sabonis, an early European basketball import was a noteworthy big man. How noteworthy? Enough to make the Naismith Hall of Fame, FIBA Hall of Fame, attain not one, not two, but three Olympic medals including a gold in ‘88 that helped make the U.S. decide to rely on NBA players, and two bronze; one in ’92 the year of the Dream Team (no way you’re winning that). Enough to make the playoffs in all 7 of his NBA years, a stint he began by the way, at 30 years of age.
So what do you do, as an NBA team, knowing that Mr. Sabonis had 4 children (1 daughter and 3 sons), and that his 20 year old son, Domantas, indeed inherited some of that height that the Wall Street Journal so aptly pointed out to be common amongst pro basketball offspring. What do you do, when this kid, or should I say 6’11” giant goes on to play college ball at a noteworthy university and goes on to nearly double his scoring by his second year, while also pulling down over 11 rebounds, shooting over 60% and hitting the increasingly important 3-ball? You draft him of course.
Or trade for him. He’s already been traded from Orlando to Oklahoma, meaning either A) Oklahoma is smart (their deal involved more than just him) and Orlando dumb, wherein the worse case it just doesn’t work out, an all too common scenario, or B) Both Orlando and Oklahoma are smart, in which Orlando, who had the pick, knew he was to be a coveted asset but one to which they could parlay for other assets when they found the right deal, which in their eyes they did. Only time will tell. In the mean time, Serge Ibaka, the player Orlando got as part of the deal, will cost them somewhere in the range of $12 million this year and want more next year due to increased skill, tenure, and most notably the jump in salary cap…and if he doesn’t get it or get traded before the season is over, will be a free agent whom could jump ship. Sabonis meanwhile, as a rookie will be getting around $2 million be locked into a contract for several years, ones in which players often make big jumps in skillset, and if he even begins to seem like a bust can still be shipped off as an asset either individually before its established or perhaps part of a package deal, kind of like the Cavs did with Anthony Bennett. Anthony who? Exactly. Plus he wasn’t even the only asset the Thunder received. Again, it almost wouldn’t even matter if he turned out to be a bust…with those kinds of numbers (height, college stats, cheap contract) and that kind of pedigree (genes, upbringing) its at least as good of a bet as almost any other that is out there. I digress.
A few other less noteable but nonetheless noticeable names to show up for the NBA’s Summer League games include Larry Drew II, who at 26 was playing in the NBA’s D-League before summer, whose dad played over 700 pro games. There is Corey Hawkins, son of Hersey Hawkins. There’s both David and Michael Stockton, sons of John Stockton, and while being in their mid twenties, are not too likely to stick around, are still quite talented and could play professionally many places. Its hard to make it at 5’11” and 6’1″ so that should be considered as well. Juwan Howard Jr should probably get a mention, at least on namesake alone. Perhaps more noteable would be Gary Payton II, who at 6’3″ is within an inch of his father’s listed height, and went from playing a couple years of community college to two years at Oregon State, his father’s alma mater where he put up some very respectable numbers.
He’s still only 23 and despite going undrafted was quickly signed by Houston, a team known for its obsession with analytics, where having a name like Gary Payton probably admittedly helps you get signed. Now if only Houston was as into judging character as they were into numbers and data.
A name can definitely be too much to go by as well though. I find it an amazing coincidence, for instance, that the Phoenix Suns…a team known for both having and letting go of point guards Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic, both of whom have gone on to mostly thrive thus far with their new teams, went on to pick Dragan Bender with the 4th pick in this year’s draft. Dragic, whose nickname is Dragon exits your roster and you end up with a guy named Dragan? Too coincidental in my opinion. Yep, I said it. His upside is that he is 7’1″ and only 18 and 7 footers are admittedly a rare commodity, but there is no doubt they are hoping he is a future Dirk or the next Porzingas in potential, to the point that they took him just as early in the draft as the Knicks second year player. Regardless, they better be right because nobody wants the next Darko Milicic (sorry Darko). They’re not alone in this regard though. The Sacramento Kings took Isaiah Cousins with the 2nd to last pick in the draft. Come on…he just happens to have the same last name as their best player? That didn’t put him on their radar, even just a bit more? Purely coicidental, I’m sure.
The other thing that the recent Wall Street Journal and other sources have overlooked, beyond the headline implication of my original article on the topic, is the father-son relationship that these players have. You can talk all you want about height. You can talk all you want about genetics, or early athletic development, but if you do so without also bringing up the prevalent theme of wanting to be like or impress one’s father, and to some extent, father’s wanting their sons to be like them, you’re doing yourself a disservice. You think its a coincidence Gary Payton II went to Oregon State? That David Stockton went to Gonzaga University? That Steph Curry shoots the 3-ball with such proficiency when his dad shot a career 40.2% from beyond the arc? What about that Luke Walton, whose father’s ties to basketball go far beyond his playing days, is the new head coach of the Lakers? That Shaquille O’Neal, whose 16 year old son is turning a lot of heads right now, announced he wants his son Shareef to consider LSU as one of 3 primary possible universities. It’d probably bring a tear to his eyes if he went (though I say go to MSU). “I need somebody that’s gonna curse him out, treat him like a man” were Shaq’s words on the matter, on his podcast. If that’s not steering a career, I don’t know what is. Its because Shaq, as a father, wants to make his son better, and in turn, his son Shareef will likely want to be better; to please both his coach (whomever it may be), and his dad, whether his sons admit it or not. But hey, I could write a whole article about the oft overlooked, oft underappreciated value of fathers; let’s save that for another time.
Lastly, Seth Curry, a noteworthy component of any familial basketball conversation, finished his season after the first article was written here. He completed what was essentially a rookie season with 6.8 points per game on 45.5% shooting, with 1.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Not bad. Especially for a newbie called too short at 6’2″. Did I forget to mention he hit 45% of his 3’s (sound familiar…)? Or that his stats were in just 15.7 minutes per game? The 2016 NBA All Star Game happened a couple weeks after the original article. After that he put up 11.1 points per game, across 19 games. along with increased shooting % across the board and still in just 23.1 minutes. To anyone not familiar enough, 11 points in 23 minutes is a decent amount of firepower…doubly so when from a fresh face in the league.
He’ll be around for sure as long as he keeps his nose to the grindstone. Just not as a King. In betting on himself (along with the luxury of a cap increase), Seth opted out of his second year and signed with the Mavericks earlier this month. From $2 mil a year to about $3. A roughly 50% raise? Not bad for a guy who went undrafted. He could never have to work again if he plays his cards right. I don’t think he’s done though in that arena (pun intended). While I don’t know all the details of his new contract, its reportedly for two years and nearly $6 million. Players have caught on to contractual nuances and the brave ones have been more willing to bet on themselves. At 26 or 27 with more experiences (and hopefully, better stats) under his belt Mr. Curry won’t want to play for rookie money if he doesn’t have to. It wouldn’t surprise me if the second year is a player option wherein he’ll bet on himself yet again then opt out next summer and re-sign there or elsewhere for more money, because why leave millions on the table? It’s what Jeremy Lin essentially did in signing a new 3 year/$38 million deal with the Nets instead of sticking with the 1 year $2.2 million player option he still had on the books. When players like Anthony Tolliver, another undrafted journeyman whom I like and think is a good role–player by the way, just signed a new 2-year/$16 million contract with Sacramento at the age of 31 after making $3 million a year the last couple seasons, it would be naive to think that Seth isn’t hoping to do something similar to these guys. Now all he has to do is prove me right, yet again. Therein lies the point of this second article. So when Manute Bol’s son Bol eventually declares for the draft and outshines his father on the court…I’ll just say “why is everyone still surprised?”
Binteresting out
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